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Skipper Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the first Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing injury concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had indicated that Cummins might be ruled out of the entire series, though the pace bowler himself has now provided a more detailed update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been battling with a spinal issue that has prevented his participation since his last professional game in July.

While Cummins has resumed running training, he has yet to begin bowling as part of his recovery program.

"It's difficult to assign a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," stated Cummins. "My bowling preparation begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from actually putting on the spikes and delivering on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would need a minimum of four weeks of net sessions to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, explaining: "It's necessary to have at least probably a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to make certain you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."

Series Implications

Given the tight timeframe, there are also concerns about Cummins' fitness for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unfit, former skipper Steve Smith is likely to lead the side, with Scott Boland possibly filling the gap in the pace department.

Australia have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues echo challenges from earlier in his distinguished career. He made his Test first appearance as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time.

However, his impressive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins endured six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his spine.

Notable Accomplishments

When fit, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test dismissals at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in home conditions is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his importance to the Australian side.

As captain, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own injury worries with captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be assessing their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series approaches.