Everyday Murders in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean count of daily murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. However, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers may not point to better national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had over these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily military campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was also problematic because it might obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.