🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 on Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Market Movement in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January surged in the hours before Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on non-public details," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation introduced on Monday would prevent public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events. This sector were examined under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."